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Random walk or Non-random walk for forex

Introduction
The great debate continues between random walkers and non-random walkers. Two competing books best represent these theories. Originally written by Burton Malkiel in 1973, A Random Walk Down Wall Street has become a classic in investment literature. Malkiel, a Princeton economist, argues that price movements are largely random and that investors cannot outperform major indices.

Random walk vs Non-random walk and Free Forex Signals

Written by Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay in 2001, the appropriately titled A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street provides the counter-argument. Lo, a professor of finance at MIT and MacKinlay, a professor of finance at Wharton, argue that price movements are not so random and that there are predictable components. Let the battle begin!

Random walk theory and Free Forex Signals

With “random walk,” Malkiel claims that price movements in stocks are unpredictable. Due to this random walk, investors cannot consistently outperform the market as a whole. Applying fundamental analysis or technical analysis to market time is a waste of time that will simply lead to poor performance. Investors would be better off buying and holding an index fund.
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Malkiel offers two popular investment theories that correspond to fundamental analysis and technical analysis. On the fundamental side, the “Firm Foundation Theory” argues that shares have an intrinsic value that can be determined by discounting future cash flows (earnings). Investors can also use valuation techniques to determine the true value of a security or market. Investors decide when to buy or sell based on these valuations.

On the technical side and Forex Signals the “castle in the air theory” assumes that successful investing depends on behavioral finance. Investors must determine the mood of the market: bull or bear. Valuations are not important because a security is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

The random walk theory agrees with the semi-strong efficient hypothesis in its claim that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market. This theory argues that stock prices are efficient because they reflect all known information (earnings, expectations, dividends). Prices adjust quickly to new information and it is practically impossible to act on this information. Also, the price moves only with the advent of new information and this information is random and unpredictable.
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In short, Malkiel attributes any superior performance success to the lady’s luck. If enough people try, some are likely to outperform the market, but most are likely to underperform.

Non-random walk theory and the best Free Forex Signals
A non-random tour of Wall Street is a collection of essays that provide empirical evidence that valuable information can be gleaned from security prices. Lo and MacKinlay used powerful computers and advanced econometric analysis to test the randomness of security prices. Although this book is a great read, the findings should be of interest to technical analysts and cartographers. In summary, this book documents the presence of predictable components in stock prices.

Just before this book, Andrew Lo wrote an article for the Journal of Finance in 2000: Fundamentals of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation. Harry Mamaysky and Jiang Wang also contributed. The newspaper’s initial comments say it all:

“Technical analysis, also known as charts, has been part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches like fundamental analysis. One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis. The presence of geometric shapes on historical price charts is often in the viewer’s eyes. In this paper, we propose a systematic and automatic approach to technical pattern recognition using non-parametric kernel regression and apply this method to a large number of EE stocks. USA From 1962 to 1996 to evaluate the effectiveness of technical analysis. When comparing the unconditional empirical distribution of daily stock returns with the conditional distribution conditioned by specific technical indicators, such as head and shoulders or double bottom, we found that during the 31-year sample period, several technical indicators provide incremental information and may have some practical value. Find more Free Forex Signals at https://www.freeforex-signals.com/

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The Framing Effect and Confirmation Bias
The framing effect describes our tendency to react to, judge, or interpret the exact same information in distinctly different ways depending on how it is presented to us, or “framed” (most commonly, whether the information is framed as a loss or as a gain). Building off of the previously discussed concepts of loss aversion and Prospect Theory, people tend to avoid risk when information is presented in a positive frame but seek risk when information is presented in a negative frame.
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The most commonly cited example of this is a 1981 Tversky and Kahneman study that asked participants to choose between two treatments, A and B, for 600 people affected by a deadly disease. Treatment A was predicted to result in a guaranteed total of 400 deaths, while treatment B had a 33% chance that no one would die but a 66% chance that everyone would die. The same two alternatives were then presented to the study’s participants either under a positive frame (how many peoples’ lives would be saved) or under a negative frame (how many people would die).
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When the alternatives were framed positively, 72% of participants chose Treatment A (“saves 200 lives”). When the exact same alternatives were framed negatively, however, only 22% of participants chose Treatment A (now presented as “400 people will die”). Saving 200 of the 600 lives is the exact same outcome as letting 400 of the 600 die, but the manner in which this identical treatment option was framed resulted in a massive decrease in the number of participants who chose it. Under the positive frame, the majority of participants avoided risk by choosing the treatment that resulted in a sure saving of 200 lives. Under the negative frame, however, the majority of participants sought the riskier alternative treatment that offered a 33% chance of saving all 600 lives.
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Another famous example that demonstrates the impact of framing is a study that found 93% of PhD students registered for classes early when a penalty fee for late registration was emphasized, but only 67% did so when the same number was presented as a discount for early registration.
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It is no secret that investors in the financial markets are under a constant barrage of information from all different sides – bullish, bearish, and everything in between. The exact same information can be framed by multiple sources in many different ways, biasing your interpretation of it. As you filter the stream of news and financial data that comes your way, consider the manner in which those numbers, statistics or reports are framed and think about the impact that their presentation has on the opinions they lead you to form.
Confirmation Bias and Forex Signals
Confirmation bias is the tendency to overweight, favor, seek out, exaggerate or more readily recall information or alternatives in a way that confirms our preconceived beliefs, hypotheses or desires, while simultaneously undervaluing, ignoring or otherwise giving disproportionately less consideration to information or alternatives that do not confirm our preconceived beliefs, hypotheses or desires. This inherent flaw in our cognitive reasoning leads to misconstrued interpretations of information, errors in judgment, and poor decision making. The effects of confirmation bias have been shown to be much stronger for emotionally-charged issues or beliefs that are deeply entrenched. In addition to overvaluing information that confirms our preexisting beliefs, confirmation bias also includes our tendency to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting existing positions, even if no true relationship exists. In short, this concept says that individuals are biased towards information that confirms their existing beliefs and biased against information that disproves their existing beliefs, leading to overconfidence in our opinions and our decisions even in the face of strong contrary evidence.
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As an investor in the financial markets, it can be difficult to maintain a separation between informed estimates or expectations and emotional judgments based on hopes or desires. By causing us to overweight information that confirms such hopes or desires, confirmation bias can affect our abilities to make sound assessments and form well-reasoned opinions about, for example, a stock’s upside potential. Awareness of our natural biases towards confirming information and, perhaps more importantly, our biases against disproving information is the first step in combating the unwanted effects of confirmation bias.
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Hindsight Bias and the Availability Heuristic
Hindsight bias describes our inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, even if there had been little to no objective basis for predicting it. This is the psychological tendency that causes us, after witnessing or experiencing the outcome of even an entirely unforeseeable event, to exclaim “I knew it all along!”

The discovery of hindsight bias emerged during the early 1970s as the field of psychology witnessed an expansion of investigations into heuristics and biases, largely led by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. Along with the uncovering of tendencies such as the hindsight bias came the discovery of the availability heuristic, a common mental shortcut that causes individuals to rely on immediate information or examples that come to mind first when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. According to the cognitive reasoning behind the availability heuristic, if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more so than alternatives that are not as readily recalled. As a result, individuals tend to more heavily weight recent or immediately-recalled information, creating a bias towards the latest news, events, experiences or memories.
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The Sunk Cost Fallacy
The sunk cost fallacy rests on the economic concept of a sunk cost: a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered. While theoretical economics says that only future (prospective) costs are relevant to an investment decision and that rational economic actors therefore should not let sunk costs influence their decisions, the findings of psychological and behavioral finance research show that sunk costs do in fact affect real-world human decision making. Because of our tendencies towards Loss Aversion and other cognitive biases, we fall victim to the sunk cost fallacy, which describes our irrational belief that sunk costs should be considered a legitimate factor in our forward decision making when, in fact, their consideration often leads us towards inefficient outcomes.
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For example, let’s say a gentleman named Fred is concerned about his weight and decides to go on a diet. As part of his cleanse, he empties his fridge of all tasty temptations. When he comes across an unopened tub of ice cream, however, he falls victim to the Sunk Cost Fallacy. Even though the $15.00 Fred spent on the ice cream is a sunk cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered, Fred convinces himself that he cannot let the ice cream go to waste because he previously spent his hard-earned dollars to buy it. Eating a full tub of ice cream is in no way in line with his current weight-loss objectives, as the calories he will take in by consuming it are many times the daily total target of his new diet. Still, despite the adverse consequences for his health goals, Fred is swayed into eating the ice cream because of the Sunk Cost Fallacy.
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In an investment setting, the consequences of the sunk cost fallacy can be much more severe than some unwanted calories. As the share price of a security falls, investors often begin to employ the logic that “I’ve already lost $XXX, it’s too late to sell now.” As prices keep falling further and losses grow, the investor’s commitment to the sunk cost continues to escalate. “Now I’ve lost $XXXXX, there’s no way I can sell now. It has to come back eventually. I’ll just hold on to it.” Improper or irrational considerations of sunk costs can lead to poor decisions that continue to spiral out of control, simply because of an incorrect perception of an expense that is irrecoverable.
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The Gambler’s Fallacy
The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy, is the mistaken tendency to believe that, if something happens more frequently than “normal” during a period of time, it must happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than “normal” during a period of time, it must happen more frequently in the future. This tendency presumably arises out of an ingrained human desire for nature to be constantly balanced or averaged. In situations where the event being observed or measured is truly random (such as the flip of a coin), this belief, although appealing to the human mind, is false.
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The gambler’s fallacy is, rather obviously, most strongly associated with gambling, where such errors in judgment and decision making are common. It can, however, arise in many practical situations, including investing. Winning and losing trades are in many ways similar to the flip of a coin and thus subject to the same psychological biases. If an investor has a series of losing trades, for example, he or she can begin to erroneously believe that, since the statistics feel unbalanced, his or her probability of making a profitable trade increases. In reality, the probability of his or her next trade being profitable is unaffected by previous losses.
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[James Coleman]

Interesting point of view on fx trading. I decided to try forex trading in June. Never regretted it. If you’re a beginner to the Forex market, read reviews about forex brokers, check videos and read books about fx trading. instaforex review here you can check reviews about fx brokers and find the best one for yourself.

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